Looking at systems asked to do too much with too little capacity.

At the recent Herrick Conferences at Purdue University, the experts at the refrigeration conference plenary panel session were asked whether they thought that electrification and decarbonization were achievable. One aspect of the discussion seemed to surprise a lot of the delegates.

It was pointed out that the two activities can be thought of as two axes on a graph of progress. On the x-axis, we can plot the carbon intensity of our electrical production, measured in grams of CO2 emitted per kWh generated, or gCO2e/kWh. The axis goes from zero to 1,000 gCO2e/kWh depending on the mix of production methods used. This metric is readily measured and is widely available for countries all around the world.

The y-axis shows the extent to which “fossil-fired” activity has been supplanted by electrically powered systems. Examples would be electric cars replacing internal combustion engines, residential heat pumps replacing gas-fired furnaces or direct electric heating replacing steam boilers for industrial processes. This axis is on a scale of zero to 100%, being the extent of replacement achieved, measured in kWh of energy use replaced by electric means.

Steady progress has been made along the x-axis over the last 40 years. Some countries, for example Norway and Sweden, are blessed with a geography that enables much of their power to come from hydroelectric schemes, supplemented in Sweden by some nuclear plants, so their grid intensity is already close to zero. In other places (Poland, China and South Africa for example), coal-fired power stations are still common. It is extremely difficult for a country like China, which has an abundance of cheap coal but insufficient indigenous gas resources, to switch from one to the other, especially in a time of rapidly growing demand for power.

Progress up the y-axis has also been significant but is quite patchy and is subject to the modern disease of “fake news,” with the press full of scare stories about electric vehicles not working in cold weather, on long journeys or catching fire without warning. These accounts are generally wildly inaccurate and excessively pessimistic. Heat pumps have come in for similar treatment. While it is true to say that a badly installed heat pump will probably perform badly, the solution is not to reject the technology outright, but rather to focus on the big picture and ensure that the excellent technology that is being developed and commercialized is backed by upskilling of the workforce to ensure that the benefits of switching to a heat pump are maximized, whether it is an individual residential unit or signing up to a district heating network.

The surprising aspect that was mentioned at Purdue is that it is vital to achieve a complete result on both axes of the graph. If we successfully switch from fossil fuel to electric heat and power sources but fail to clean up the generation of that electricity we will be worse off than now. On the other hand, if we clean up the grid but don’t stop burning stuff in vehicles and furnaces we will be no better off.

You might wonder why this is relevant to the refrigeration community. We can’t do anything about the power generation axis, apart from lobby our politicians to be sensible for once, but there are many ways for us to support the electrification project. More of that in a future column.